TIMING OPTIMAL DES PAIEMENTS INTERNATIONAUX SELON LES MARCHÉS ASIATIQUE, EUROPÉEN ET NORD-AMÉRICAIN : CAS DE LA RD CONGO / OPTIMAL TIMING OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS ACROSS ASIAN, EUROPEAN AND NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS: THE CASE OF DR CONGO

Auteur/ices

  • Edson Niyonsaba Sebigunda La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa, République Démocratique du Congo 2University of Johannesburg, School of Economics, Johannesburg, South Africa
  • John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa, République Démocratique du Congo University of Johannesburg, School of Economics, Johannesburg, South Africa York University, School of Health Policy and Management, Toronto, Canada

DOI :

https://doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v8i8.1939

Mots-clés :

marchés des changes, microstructure du marché, arbitrage temporel, Franc Congolais, économies émergentes

Résumé

Cette étude analyse les variations des taux de change entre les sessions de marché (Asie, Europe, Amérique) pour optimiser le timing des paiements internationaux, avec une perspective particulière sur la République Démocratique du Congo, dont l'économie dépend fortement des devises étrangères pour ses activités quotidiennes. Cinq paires de devises sont examinées (2023-2025), en accordant une attention spéciale au CDF/USD comme cas d'étude représentatif des défis uniques auxquels font face les économies émergentes Africaines. Notre méthodologie combine analyse statistique, modélisation GARCH et apprentissage automatique (Gradient Boosting) pour identifier les patterns temporels exploitables. Les résultats révèlent des inefficiences systématiques, avec des économies potentielles atteignant 1,5% sur les transactions internationales. La prévisibilité varie considérablement (R²=0,75 pour l'EUR/USD contre R²=0,34-0,40 pour le CDF/USD), reflétant les différentes dynamiques de marché. Cette recherche offre aux entreprises Congolaises, institutions financières et à la Banque Centrale du Congo un cadre pratique pour optimiser leurs opérations de change, réduire les coûts de transaction et améliorer la gestion des réserves, contribuant ainsi à renforcer la stabilité économique nationale dans un contexte de forte dépendance aux devises étrangères.

 

JEL: F31, G15, D53, O55, E58

 

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Biographies des auteurs

  • Edson Niyonsaba Sebigunda, La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa, République Démocratique du Congo 2University of Johannesburg, School of Economics, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Dr. Edson Niyonsaba Sebigunda is the Director General of La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa (HEC-KIN), Democratic Republic of Congo. He holds a PhD in Management Science from Yaoundé II University (2011-2014). He is a senior expert in project management and impact evaluation, economist-financial researcher, and manager of socio-demographic surveys. His research interests include foreign exchange markets, emerging market economics, and financial risk management.

    ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Niyonsaba-Edson

  • John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa, République Démocratique du Congo University of Johannesburg, School of Economics, Johannesburg, South Africa York University, School of Health Policy and Management, Toronto, Canada

    Dr. John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba is an Associate Professor in Financial Economics at the University of Johannesburg, South Africa, and at La Haute École de Commerce de Kinshasa (HEC-KIN), Democratic Republic of Congo. He is also a Research Associate at York University, School of Health Policy and Management, Canada. He holds a B.Sc. Honours degree in Mathematical Statistics and Computer Programming, a master's degree in Financial Economics, and a PhD in Financial Economics from the University of Johannesburg. He also holds a certificate in Decision Sciences from INSEAD Business School (Paris) and a Data Science diploma from McMaster University (Canada). His research focuses on Data Science, Text Modeling, Financial Statistics, and Decision Theory. He is the Founder of the Analytics Research Group and a member of the South African Economic Society.

    Institutional webpage: https://pure.uj.ac.za/en/persons/john-muteba-mwamba,   

    ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8002-1156,

    ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/John-Weirstrass-Muteba-Mwamba

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Publiée

2025-05-09

Numéro

Vol. 8 No 8 (2025)

Rubrique

Articles