CRUDE OIL PRICE, STOCK PRICE AND SOME SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AN IMPLICATION ON THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY

Autor(i)

  • Idowu Paul Olanitori B.Sc. Paul Consult, Research and Data Analysis, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria
  • Olaiya Hawley Ademulegun B.Sc., M.Sc, Faculty of Business Studies, Department of Business Administration and Management, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria
  • Olateru Olagbegi Adeparubi B.Sc., M.Sc, Faculty of Business Studies, Accountancy Department, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v5i2.1134

Ključne riječi:

crude oil price, stock price, gross domestic product, Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM), General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and macroeconomic

Sažetak

Since the first oil price oscillation in 1973s, macroeconomists have viewed sharp measures in the price of oil are generally as an important source of economic vacillations. The go-slow of economic activities has important implications for economic agents and markets. Therefore, this paper models and forecasts the crude oil price, stock price and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. A model predicated on the Keynesian model using yearly data between 1986 and 2016 and analysed using VECM and GARCH approaches. The findings showed that there is long run relationship through Vector Error Correction Model which was achieved well in forecasting the selected macroeconomic variables while the volatility in crude oil price and stock price causes by external and internal forces also captured by General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskadasticity. The long run negative effect of macroeconomic variable on economy growth can be controlled by making strong fiscal and monetary policies. The 2016 recession was reinforced by all share index and exchange rate as the path of growth declined over the forecast horizon. Further checks carried out using normality test validated the choice of this work. The paper concludes that monetary and exchange rate policy consistency are decisive for smoothening business rotation vacillations and promoting market stability. JEL: L10; E30

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Biografije autora

  • Idowu Paul Olanitori, B.Sc. Paul Consult, Research and Data Analysis, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria
    Olanitori Idowu Paul is a Researcher, Analyst and an Economenrian at Paul Consult, Research and Data Analysis at Rufus Giwa Polytechnic Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria since 2015 till date. He barged Bachelor (B.Sc.) in Economics and Statistics at University of Benin, Benin City, Edo State. Current and former research interests are in the fields of Econometrics and Public Sector Economics.
  • Olaiya Hawley Ademulegun, B.Sc., M.Sc, Faculty of Business Studies, Department of Business Administration and Management, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria
    Ademulegun Olaiya Hawley is a Lecturer at Rufus Giwa Polytechnic Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria since 2001 till date. He barged Master (M.Sc) in Economics at Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Edo State. Current and former research interests are in the fields of Developmental Economics, Human Resource Management and Entrepreneurship Development.
  • Olateru Olagbegi Adeparubi, B.Sc., M.Sc, Faculty of Business Studies, Accountancy Department, Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria
    Adeparubi Olateru-Olagbegi is a Lecturer at Rufus Giwa Polytechnic Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria since 2012 till date. She barged Master (M.Sc) in Accounting at University of Benin, Benin City. Current and former research interests are in the fields of Public Sector Accounting and Managerial Accounting.

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Preuzimanja

Objavljeno

2021-08-23

Broj časopisa

Svezak 5 Br. 2 (2021)

Rubrika

Articles